Hurricane Dorian Insured Losses in Bahamas Could Hit $6.5 Billion: RMS

Insured losses in the Caribbean from Hurricane Dorian is estimated at $3.5 billion to $6.5 billion, according to RMS, the risk modeling and analytics firm.

This estimate represents insured losses associated with wind and storm surge damage across the Caribbean region, most notably in the Bahamas, which was the most severely impacted country, said Newark, Calif.-based RMS.

RMS estimates that nearly all of the Caribbean insured losses will come from the Bahamas, particularly Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands. This loss estimate reflects property damage and business interruption caused by wind and storm surge-driven coastal flooding to residential, commercial, industrial, marine and automobile lines of business, plus factors for both post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled losses.

“There is a high degree of uncertainty on the potential impact of post-event loss amplification from this event,” said Jeff Waters, senior product manager, RMS North Atlantic Hurricane Models.

“Nevertheless, we expect PLA in the Bahamas to be significant due to constrained access to the islands and infrastructure damage,” he added.

RMS said port closures, damaged roads, and severe damage to the airport will make it difficult to deliver materials and will also limit the ability of residents and business owners to return to damaged homes and buildings. “Consequently, cost of materials is expected to inflate, and repairs could be prolonged, both of which are expected to amplify the cost of the claims from this event,” RMS said.

Business interruption losses are expected to be significant, as hotels and resorts comprise a large portion of the overall commercial exposure.

Source: RMS