White Paper: Pressure System Plays Major Role in Predicting Hurricane Landfalls

The ReAdvisory group of Carvill, a specialty reinsurance intermediary, has released a white paper that concludes the location of the Bermuda High pressure system is crucial in determining whether a hurricane will make landfall along the east coast of the U.S.

Dr. Steve Smith, an atmospheric physicist and vice president of ReAdvisory, has been researching weather phenomena for 11 years. He recently examined industry reports that explore the incidence rate of landfalling hurricanes, and found these reports have not been inclusive in predicting when a hurricane is more likely to make landfall.

“A reliable warning system could play a major role in determining the timing of buying and selling exposure,” Dr. Smith stated. “The Bermuda High is a weather system, and as such is predictable at least five days into the future. Even though it is implicitly included in forecasts of hurricane tracks, registering the position, presence or absence of the Bermuda High alone provides a strong indication of the potential for landfalls by identified hurricane activity.”

“To put it plainly, the Bermuda High pressure system seems to act as a ‘goalkeeper’; during the 2000-2002 period, it was doing a good job deflecting hurricanes away from the U.S. east coast. But during 2004 (and 2003) it was out of position, allowing hurricanes through. Understanding the role of the Bermuda High, and knowing whether that system is in place, is a critical factor in predicting what could happen next.”

This report closely follows the release of ReAdvisory’s “2004 Hurricane Season in Review” white paper, and is the second in a series of papers designed to provide better understanding of what the future could hold in terms of hurricane incidence, landfall and economic impact.

The “Hurricane Landfalls and the Bermuda High” white paper is
available online at www.carvill.com