Marsh Specialty: 2024 Elections to Direct Global Course for Next Decade-Plus

More than 60 elections will be held worldwide in 2024, and the outcomes will likely affect international relationships, drive policy uncertainty and disrupt markets, Marsh Specialty leaders said in a new political risk report.

“The outcomes of the elections taking place this year are set to direct the course of global events for the next decade and beyond,” said Robert Perry, global political risks and structured credit leader at Marsh Specialty.

He continued: “While the world feels like a riskier place in such a time of such macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, businesses that effectively manage and transfer risks in this rapidly changing environment will be well-positioned to seize on future growth opportunities and continue to thrive.”

Long-term uncertainty stemming from macroeconomic competition and geopolitical insecurity “will create even greater economic divergence between sectors and economies, amid growing government intervention and the increasing frequency of harder-to-predict disruptive security events.”

Fragile macroeconomic conditions in the wake of the 2024 elections will be further stressed by high debt levels among companies and governments, Marsh reported. This, combined with potential weak growth in advanced geographies, could disrupt governmental investment policies and contribute to heightened credit, supply chain and business interruption risks for organizations.

“[A] record number of voters heading to the polls this year are likely to focus on internal economic and international security concerns,” Marsh said. “In addition, the weaponization of artificial intelligence (AI) by non-state groups, adversarial states, politicians and individuals to amplify misinformation and disinformation will further exacerbate policy uncertainty and political violence risks for organizations and investors.”

Marsh reported that this November’s U.S. presidential and legislative elections will drive behavior and preparatory decision-making throughout 2024 as businesses and governments “attempt to divine the outcome and its potential economic and political consequences.”

“On a positive note, the limited range of potential outcomes will facilitate efforts to use scenario-planning strategies to prepare for the results,” the report said. “As the election nears, levels of governmental policy paralysis are expected to worsen, with neither Democratic nor Republican parties eager to give the opposition a legislative victory on which to campaign.”

The report also shares that, despite continued volatility and uncertainty, there are substantial global growth opportunities that organizations may benefit from — if these risks are managed effectively. Read the full report for a deep dive into these diverging risks.

In addition to the political risk report, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, published in partnership with Marsh McLennan and others, asserts that cooperation on urgent global issues could be in increasingly short supply in the next decade, requiring new approaches to addressing risks.