Another Report Forecasts 2024 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season to Be ‘Extremely Active’

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A 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

This is the 41^st year Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

Accuweather meteorologists in March also forecast an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with as many as 20 to 25 named storms.

“We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active,” the authors state in the report which uses data collected through March. “Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.”

The authors anticipate “a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” with a “warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic” making for “a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

The report reflects a 2024 Atlantic hurricane season activity expected to be well above the 1991–2020 average, with 23 named storms (nearly twice the average of 14.4), 11 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 45 hurricane days (average is 27.0) and five major hurricanes (Category 3-4-5; average is 3.2).

The report forecasts the probabilities for at least one major (category 3-4-5) hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:

Entire continental U.S. coastline – 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 34% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

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