CSU Research Team Increases Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

Hurricane Beryl got the respected team of researchers at Colorado State University to rethink its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which has already seen three named storms.

CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science now calls for an “extremely active” total of 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or more.

Hurricane Beryl was already the earliest Category 4 and 5 storm ever as it affected the Caribbean and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico to a Category 2 hurricane and making another landfall between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas early July 8.

“We have increased our overall forecast numbers slightly, due in part to Hurricane Beryl,” CSU researchers said in its planned July 9 forecast update.

The group’s April and June forecasts called for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The average Atlantic hurricane season includes 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

“The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average,” added the CSU team. Not counting Beryl, the researches put a 57% chance on another major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline.

Sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal, and the current La Nina weather pattern reduces wind shear that typically prevent the formation of storms. CSU said its confidence is “higher than normal for a July forecast based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favorable large-scale environmental conditions.”

“While there has been slight anomalous cooling since last month, most of the North Atlantic remains much warmer than normal, favoring hurricane activity. This anomalous warmth is [the] primary reason why CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast for 2024 is calling for such an active season,” wrote Phil Klotzbach, CSU senior research scientist, on X.

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