Study Urges Rethinking of Disaster Management in Era of Compounding Events

A new report warns that compounding natural disasters introduce new, interconnected, and complex risk scenarios — and points to a need to reimagine efforts that support disaster preparedness, mitigation, and recovery “in an era of intensifying extreme weather-climate events and increased risk of compounding disasters.”

Published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, the 286-page document examines compounding disasters in Gulf Coast communities from 2020 to 2021. These included seven major hurricanes — some arriving in the same region within weeks of another — and a severe winter storm.

Roy Wright, chair of the committee that authored the report and president and CEO of the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, said that for too long, the U.S. has responded to disasters as singular, isolated events.

“Individual disasters do not occur in isolation amid a community’s history,” Wright said. “With each successive punch of overlapping disaster recoveries, the vulnerabilities increase. This heightens the risk that the next event could provide a knock-out blow. These are compounding disasters.”

The study maintains that the ability to successfully manage disaster risk and plan for future events is restricted by cognitive biases that are limited by what has been experienced or what is perceived to be the benchmark extreme.

“These biases are reflected in emergency management protocols, land-use planning and plans, zoning regulations, public utility design, and building codes, which are often grounded in historical precedent,” a press release stated “Given a changing climate, this backward-looking vantage is unlikely to be representative of future hazard risks.”

Florida, Louisiana and Texas each incurred more than $200 billion in weather and climate disaster damages between 1980 and 2023, according to the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. During that time, Texas led the nation in cumulative costs ($402 billion), followed by Florida ($389 billion) and Louisiana ($304 billion).

Billion Dollar Events

NOAA reports that billion-dollar disaster events that occur at the same time or in sequence are an “increasing problem for recovery.” The organization’s tracking showed that between 2018 and 2022, there were 18 days, on average, between billion-dollar disasters. That compares to 82 days in the 1980s.

“Shorter time intervals between disasters often mean less time and resources available to respond, recover and prepare for future events,” said a NOAA blog post in January. “This increased frequency of events produces cascading impacts that are particularly challenging for vulnerable socioeconomic populations.”

When outlining how to bolster adaptive capacity, the National Academies report highlights the importance of interconnected and interdependent systems crucial to societal functioning. It underscores the connections and feedback loops that can amplify the negative impacts of disasters.

“This systems-oriented approach points to the need to bolster key pillars of communities’ ability to respond to extreme events, including public health, mental health, and community-based organizations, risk and emergency communications infrastructure, and access to safe, sanitary, and secure housing,” the press release announcing the report stated. “Strategies aimed at strengthening these pillars can increase the adaptive capacity of vulnerable and exposed communities so that disaster effects are less likely to compound.”

Related: Rebuilding After Hurricanes is Complex, Can Change Character of a Community

The report also maintains that perpetual disaster recovery is a reality for many living in the Gulf region. Much of the area’s population experiences the impacts of compounding disasters alongside other hazards and vulnerabilities that are often rooted in historic, systemic and structural discrimination.

“Such circumstances further constrain the ability of residents to [recover] fully from disasters, while increasing their sensitivity to the effects of climate change and extreme events,” the organization said.

The report details new approaches to contending with compounding disasters that include valuing stronger mechanisms for turning prior experience into lessons implemented, as well as revising disaster policies and procedures to address and eliminate uneven access to resources that can worsen social and economic inequities following disasters.

Lauren Alexander Augustine, executive director of the Gulf Research Program, which funded the study, said that the first two years of the 2020s were “devastating” for the Gulf Coast region.

“Our best science tells us that this likely wasn’t a fluke, and we need to draw upon the lessons and experiences of those years to position ourselves to build a strong foundation fitting the new normal of disasters that the 21st century will bring,” she said.

The National Academies study was produced by the Compounding Disasters in Gulf Coast Communities, 2020-2021: Impacts, Findings, and Lessons Learned Consensus Study Committee. The full document can be accessed on the National Academies website.