NOAA Says Highly Active Hurricane Season Likely to Continue in The Atlantic

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has already forecast an extremely active hurricane season, is now saying it could rank among the busiest on record.

In a mid-season hurricane outlook update, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasters updated the number of expected named storms to 17 to 24 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including four to seven major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

The updated outlook is similar to the initial outlook issued in May, but it includes totals for the entire six-month hurricane season, including the four named storms—two tropical storms and two hurricanes—to date.

Tropical Storm Alberto formed on June 17, and it brought nearly a foot of rain to parts of Texas and New Mexico, triggering flash flood emergencies. On July 1, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest category-5 storm on record in the Atlantic basin.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” state NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The administration forecasts a 90% probability of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA says the Atlantic ocean basin is expected to be active due to factors including:

Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
Reduced vertical wind shear.
Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
An enhanced west African monsoon.

The Atlantic basin is in a continued warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has been favoring more active hurricane seasons ever since. Another factor this year is the possibility of La Niña developing in the coming months, which can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, which enables storms to develop and intensify, according to NOAA.

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