Hurricane Helene to Hit as Cat 3, and Early Estimates Forecast $3-$6B in Insured Losses

Hurricane Helene is expected to hit Florida as a Category 3, and a property data firm estimates that nearly 25,000 residential properties with a combined reconstruction cost value of $5.6 billion are at risk to storm surge flooding—a reinsurer estimates insured losses at $3 billion to $6 billion.

The estimate from CoreLogic assumes Helene will make landfall as a Category 3 and the hurricane keeps its current forecasted track.

Forecasts show Helene will make landfall at a similar strength to 2023’s Hurricane Idalia, but further west. Hurricane Idalia’s final insured loss impact was less than $2 billion and was limited by the remoteness of the landfall location.

Helene’s track over more populated regions means that impacts will likely be more significant, according to CoreLogic.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 125 mph prior to landfall with the potential of higher gusts.

Most of the homes at risk identified in the CoreLogic estimate (17,587) are in the Homosassa Springs metro area, while 7,073 are in the Tallahassee metro area.

An advisory from Gallagher Re puts potential loss estimates in the $3 billion to $6 billion range.

“Landfall in the Big Bend or Panhandle region of Florida as a major hurricane (Category 3, 4, or 5) has historically translated to insured losses in the low single-digit billions (USD),” the advisory states. “But Helene is not a typical storm. Given Helene’s very large wind radius, this would still bring hurricane-force wind gusts and high storm surge to coastal areas in the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, tropical storm force winds across most of the Florida peninsula, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and southern Appalachia. This initially suggests that Helene’s private insurance market losses should be expected to land in the range of USD3 billion to USD6 billion.”

In an unlikely scenario in which Helene unexpectedly shifts further east toward Tampa, the cost to the private insurance market and federally run insurance programs would be expected to exceed $10 billion, according to Gallagher Re.

According to the National Hurricane Center, storm surge inundation along Florida’s Big Bend Coast could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level.