Moody’s Estimates U.S. Private Market Insured Losses for Hurricane Helene at $8B to $14B

Moody’s RMS Event Response on Monday released an estimate showing total U.S. private market insured losses from Hurricane Helene could be between $8 billion and $14 billion.

Moody’s puts its best estimate at $11 billion. The estimate represents insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding from the event.

Moody’s RMS Event Response also estimates losses to the National Flood Insurance Program from the event could reach more than $2 billion.

The figures don’t fall far out of line with estimates from CoreLogic, which last week revised its insured losses estimate upward. Total insured loss from Hurricane Helene is now estimated at between $10.5 billion and $17.5 billion, according to the modeling firm. That was up significantly from the modeler’s earlier estimate of $3 billion to $6 billion in insured losses as the storm was about to strike.

Karen Clark & Co., a storm modeling and analytics firm, has estimated privately insured losses from Hurricane Helene will be about $6.4 billion from wind, storm surge and inland flooding in nine states.

AccuWeather, which increased its estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Helene in the U.S. last week, now says losses are likely to be between $225 billion and $250 billion. That was the third estimate increase from the weather service. Less than a week ago, AccuWeather increased its estimate of the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Helene to between $145 billion and $160 billion.

Hurricane Helene made landfall as a Category 4 major hurricane west-southwest of Perry, Taylor County, Florida on Sept. 27, with maximum sustained winds of 140 miles per hour, bringing hurricane-force winds, damaging storm surge, and heavy rainfall to the Louisiana coastline.

Moody’s loss estimate reflects wind losses in Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, as well as storm surge losses in Florida. The estimate also includes impacts from inland flooding in affected regions, particularly North Carolina.

Estimated losses reflect property damage and business interruption to residential, commercial, industrial, and automobile lines of business, and consider sources of post-event loss amplification (PLA) and non-modeled losses from extended power outages, and infrastructure damage to roads, transmission, and distribution lines, according to Moody’s.

Moody’s estimates expect the private market losses to be driven by wind. However, storm surge in Florida and floods in North Carolina will also contribute notably to total private market-insured losses, according to the modeler.

NFIP losses are expected to be largely driven by storm surge in Florida, because the take-up rate in flood-devastated regions in North Carolina is minimal. Insured wind and NFIP losses will be driven by residential lines, while storm surge and inland flood losses to the private market will be driven by commercial, industrial, and automobile lines, according to Moody’s.

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