TS Tomas on Track to Strike Haiti, Jamaica; May Gain Strength

The most recent bulletin from the National Hurricane Center, posted at 11:00 a.m. EDT, puts Tropical Storm Tomas about 125 miles, 205 kms south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 295 miles, 475 kms west-southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti.

Maximum sustained winds were clocked at 50 mph, 85 km/hr with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, “and Tomas could be near or at hurricane strength as the center passes eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas,” the NHC said. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles,140 kms, mainly to the east of the center.

The storm is moving toward the north at near 8 mph,13 km/hr. The NHC forecasts a “turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed” over the next 48 hours. “On the forecast track the center will pass near Jamaica or Haiti tonight, and “near or over extreme eastern Cuba Friday and near or over the southeastern Bahamas late Friday and Friday night.

Although Tomas isn’t packing especially strong winds, it threatens to drop a great deal of rain on the areas it passes over – “5 to 10 inches [12.7 to 2.54 cms] over much of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches |38 cms],” according to the NHC.

The deluge would trigger floods and landslides in mountainous areas. Haiti is under particular threat, as there is little natural ground cover to hold back the floods. In addition nearly 1 million people are still living in tents and other makeshift shelters, as a result of the earthquake that struck the island in January.

Source: National Hurricane Center