P/C Industry Net Income, Overall Profitability Slip in 1Q 2007

The U.S. property/casualty insurance industry’s net income after taxes dipped to $15.8 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $16.7 billion in first-quarter 2006 and $17.7 billion in first-quarter 2005, according to industry analysts at the ISO and the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI). Reflecting the declines in net income, the property/casualty industry’s annualized rate of return on average policyholders’ surplus (statutory net worth) dropped to 12.9 percent in first-quarter 2007 from 15.5 percent in first-quarter 2006 and 17.9 percent in first-quarter 2005.

“Insurers’ 12.9 percent rate of return for first-quarter 2007 was 1.8 percentage points above insurers’ 11.1 percent average first-quarter rate of return since the start of ISO’s quarterly data in 1986, but it fell short of the rates of return typically earned by firms in other industries,” said Michael R. Murray, ISO’s assistant vice president for financial analysis. “During the 24 years from 1983 to 2006, the comparable rate of return for the Fortune 500 averaged 13.9 percent, and escalating competition in insurance markets suggests insurers’ rate of return will fall further below that earned by firms in other industries rather than rise to meet it.”

Contributing to the $0.9 billion, or 5.5 percent, decline in net income in first-quarter 2007, the industry’s net gain on underwriting receded to $8.3 billion in the first three months of this year from $8.4 billion in the first three months of 2006, as net written premium growth versus year-ago levels slowed to 0.8 percent in first-quarter 2007 from 1.8 percent in first-quarter 2006. Also contributing to the decline in net income, the industry’s federal income taxes rose to $5.4 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $5.3 billion in first-quarter 2006. But much of the decline in first-quarter net income reflects a special transaction in which one U.S. insurer assumed $9.3 billion in liabilities from a foreign entity in exchange for considerations valued at $7.1 billion.

“Seasonal patterns in the data also suggest that insurers’ rate of return will decline later this year,” said Genio Staranczak, PCI’s chief economist. “Insurers’ profitability in the first quarter usually exceeds their profitability later in the year, in part because of the timing of weather-related catastrophe losses. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.”

The figures are consolidated estimates for all private property/casualty insurers based on reports accounting for at least 96 percent of all business written by private U.S. property/casualty insurers.

Underwriting Results
Net written premiums grew $0.9 billion to $111.4 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $110.5 billion in first-quarter 2006, but written premium growth slowed to 0.8 percent in the first quarter of this year from 1.8 percent in the first quarter of last year, the analysts reported. “Similarly, net earned premiums rose $2 billion to $108.6 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $106.6 billion in first-quarter 2006, as earned premium growth slowed to 1.9 percent during the first three months of 2007 from 2.7 percent during the first three months of 2006.”

“At 0.8 percent in first-quarter 2007, net written premium growth was the weakest for any first quarter since 1992,” said Murray. “Market surveys and U.S. government data indicate that escalating competition and declines in the price of insurance are cutting into premium growth. … In May, the CPI for motor vehicle insurance declined 0.3 percent compared with its level a year earlier, while the CPI for motor vehicle repairs rose 2.8 percent. And despite ongoing problems in some coastal property insurance markets exposed to hurricanes, the CPI for tenants and household insurance rose a scant 0.1 percent countrywide — far less than the 4.2 percent increase in the CPI for repair of household items.”

Evidence suggests that escalating competitive pressures are cutting into premium growth, according to Staranczak. “In first-quarter 2007, net written premiums were up 0.8 percent from a year ago, while the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), which takes into account both inflation and real growth, increased 4.6 percent during the same time frame,” Staranczak said. “That premiums grew only about one-sixth as much as GDP is an indication that intensifying competition is leading to lower prices for most coverages in most locations, though property insurance remains scarce and expensive in some coastal areas.”

Overall loss and loss adjustment expenses increased $1.1 billion, or 1.6 percent, to $70.4 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $69.3 billion in first-quarter 2006, the analysts reported. Non-catastrophe loss and loss adjustment expenses rose $1.3 billion, or 1.9 percent, to $69.1 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $67.8 billion in first-quarter 2006. But according to ISO’s Property Claim Services (PCS) unit, direct insured losses from catastrophes dropped to $1.3 billion in the first three months of 2007 from $1.5 billion in the corresponding portion of 2006.

Other underwriting expenses — primarily acquisition expenses, other expenses associated with underwriting, pricing and servicing insurance policies, and premium taxes — rose $1.1 billion, or 3.8 percent, to $29.6 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $28.6 billion in first-quarter 2006.

Dividends to policyholders in first-quarter 2007 totaled $0.3 billion, essentially unchanged from dividends to policyholders in first-quarter 2006.

The $8.3 billion net gain on underwriting in first-quarter 2007 amounts to 7.6 percent of the $108.6 billion in net earned premiums for the period, whereas the $8.4 billion net gain on underwriting in first-quarter 2006 amounted to 7.9 percent of the $106.6 billion in net earned premiums for that period, reported ISO and PCI.

The combined ratio — a key measure of losses and other underwriting expenses per dollar of premium — rose to 91.7 percent in first-quarter 2007 from 91.1 percent in first-quarter 2006, with the change in the combined ratio reflecting imbalances between the growth in premiums and the costs of providing insurance.

“The combined ratio for first-quarter 2007 is the second best for any first quarter since 1986 (when ISO ‘s quarterly records begin), but it wasn’t good enough for insurers to achieve the rate of return typically earned by firms in other industries,” said Murray. “With first-quarter 2007 investment results, financial leverage, and tax rates, ISO estimates that the combined ratio would have had to improve to 89.6 percent in order for insurers to have earned the 13.9 percent long-term average rate of return for the Fortune 500. Moreover, insurers must now post better underwriting results just to be as profitable as they once were.”

For example, in first-quarter 1987, when the industry’s combined ratio was 103.9 percent, the annualized rate of return on average surplus was 15.9 percent — 3 percentage points higher than the industry’s 12.9 percent rate of return for first-quarter 2007, even though the combined ratio was 12.2 percentage points worse than the 91.7 percent combined ratio for the first quarter of this year, Murray said.

Investment Results
The industry’s net investment income — primarily dividends from stocks and interest on bonds — grew 10 percent to $12.9 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $11.7 billion in first-quarter 2006, according to the analysts. But realized capital gains on investments (not included in net investment income) declined 2.6 percent to $1.8 billion in the first three months of 2007 from $1.9 billion in the corresponding period of 2006. Combining net investment income and realized capital gains, overall net investment gains rose 8.3 percent to $14.7 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $13.6 billion in first-quarter 2006.

Combining the $1.8 billion in realized capital gains in first-quarter 2007 with the $0.1 billion in unrealized capital gains during the period, insurers posted $1.9 billion in overall capital gains in the first quarter of 2007 — down from $5.9 billion in overall capital gains in the first quarter of 2006.

“The 10 percent increase in property/casualty insurers’ net investment income in first-quarter 2007 is the result of two developments,” said Murray. “Insurers’ average holding of cash and invested assets rose 7.9 percent. And the annualized yield on insurers’ cash and invested assets increased to 4.23 percent in first-quarter 2007 from 4.15 percent in first-quarter 2006. Prospectively, we may see slowing in the growth of investment income as softening prices in insurance markets cut into premiums and the new cash available to fund growth in investment portfolios.”

“The 67.2 percent decline in insurers’ total capital gains in first-quarter 2007 reflects developments in financial markets,” said Staranczak. “In the first quarter of 2007, stock prices as measured by the S&P 500 rose a barely noticeable 0.2 percent — far less than the 3.7 percent increase in the S&P 500 in first-quarter 2006. Similarly, the NASDAQ composite rose just 0.3 percent in the first quarter of this year — much, much less than the 6.1 percent increase in that stock index the first quarter of last year. Going forward, the S&P 500 rose 5.4 percent from the end of the first-quarter through June 25, which suggests insurers’ results for the second quarter will benefit from additional capital gains on investments. Beyond that, it all depends on future developments in financial markets.”

Pretax Operating Income
Pretax operating income — the sum of net gains or losses on underwriting, net investment income, and miscellaneous other income — declined 3.9 percent to $19.4 billion in first-quarter 2007 from $20.1 billion in first-quarter 2006, the analysts reported. The $0.8 billion decline in operating income is the net result of the $0.2 billion decline in net gains on underwriting, the $1.2 billion increase in net investment income, and a $1.8 billion decline in miscellaneous other income to negative $1.8 billion in first-quarter 2007 from near zero in first-quarter 2006. The decline in miscellaneous other income reflects the previously mentioned special transaction in which one U.S. insurer assumed $9.3 billion in liabilities from a foreign entity in exchange for considerations valued at $7.1 billion, some tax benefits, and the opportunity to earn investment income on the funds held to pay down the liabilities.

Policyholders’ Surplus
Policyholders’ surplus, the property/casualty insurance industry’s statutory net worth, increased 1.9 percent to $496.6 billion at March 31, 2007, from $487.1 billion at year-end 2006, the analysts said. The $9.4 billion increase in policyholders’ surplus in first-quarter 2007 is 29.3 percent less than the $13.4 billion increase in first-quarter 2006.

The increase in surplus in first-quarter 2007 consisted of $15.8 billion in net income after taxes, $0.1 billion in unrealized capital gains on investments (not included in net income), and $1.2 billion in new funds paid in (new capital raised by insurers), less $5.8 billion in dividends to shareholders and $1.8 billion in miscellaneous charges against surplus.

The $0.1 billion in unrealized capital gains in first-quarter 2007 is down from $4 billion in first-quarter 2006.

The $1.2 billion in new funds paid in during the first three months of 2007 is up from $0.3 billion in the first three months of 2006.

The $5.8 billion in dividends to shareholders in the first quarter of 2007 is up 11.5 percent from $5.2 billion in the first quarter of 2006.

The $1.8 billion in miscellaneous charges against surplus in first-quarter 2007 is 25.9 percent less than the $2.5 billion in miscellaneous charges against surplus in first-quarter 2006.

Source: ISO, PCI, III